Pakistan’s entity is synonymous to coups and military interference.
Gen Ayub Khan in 1958, deposed PM Firoz Khan Noon, Gen Zia ul Haque, in 1977, deposed PM Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who was latter executed, and in 1999, Gen Pervez Musharraf removed PM Nawaz Sharif to assume power.
Pakistan achieved a major political milestone in May 2013, when a successful transfer of power from one civilian government to another took place. It had never ever happened in its history of 68 years since independence.
However, as of August 2014, Pakistan is back in the middle of a political crisis. It’s considered to be the most severe in years by some counts, and one that is likely to have destabilizing outcomes.
The issue is about two political parties joining hands, namely, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) led by former cricketer Imran Khan and Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) led by Dr Tahrir ul-Qadri, a Canada-based demagogue preacher, to mobilize public support against the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) led government of Nawaz Sharif.

The Core Issue of Unrest

The main demand of the above said agitating political parties is the constitution of a judicial commission to probe large scale rigging that is said to have taken place during the elections that brought Nawaz Sharif to power in May 2013.
They further want PM Nawaz Sharif to step down from power to ensure a fair probe and also on accounts of rampage corruption charges leveled against the ruling party.
While Nawaz Sharif government has consented to constitute the judicial commission, he is unwilling to step down from power.
Uncertainty looms large in Islamabad as the protesters entered the Red Zone, where Parliament House and Prime Minister and other prominent ruling political leaders reside.
It resulted in violent protests and use of excessive force by Punjab police, which had been specially requisitioned as the Islamabad police had shown measured restrained against protesters earlier.
Sharif’s government dispatched the Pakistani military to the capital in anticipation of Khan’s demonstrations. Should widespread violence erupt between Khan’s supporters and the military, Sharif will undoubtedly inspire nationwide rage.
PM Nawaz Sharif during this critical phase of political turmoil continued to stay at his Farm house residence in Lahore. It is being said by Qadri and Khan that he is too scared to enter the capital of the country, Islamabad.
Presently, unprecedented agitations and violence has spread into other states, including Punjab, which was always considered to be the bastion of the ruling PML.

Implications of Unrest

Pakistan Army

This crisis will have important reverberations for civilian governance in Pakistan, but more importantly it will almost certainly strengthen the position of the military in national politics.
Nawaz Sharif on coming into power had maneuvered by superseding a few generals to get his ‘own man’ as COAS. The present chief Gen Raheel Sharif is known to have little political ambitions.
However, he is a protégée of Gen Musharraf and holds him as his close mentor. Recently, when Nawaz Sharif brought a treason prosecution against Gen Musharrf, it is a known fact that Gen Sharif had put his foot down on the issue.
Besides the above reason, there are mainly two other reasons because of which Pakistan army fell apart with the ruling government.
Firstly, Sharif’s plan for cracking down on the Taliban and reconciliation with the Afghan democracy is being denounced by the Pakistan military and intelligence communities, including the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
Secondly, Nawaz Sharifs peace negotiations with India are being loathed by the military. If peace prevails with India, then Pakistan military will completely lose its importance. Presently, the lion’s share of the national budget is allocated to the forces.
Besides the above fact, the people of Pakistan will stop regarding the military as their saviors’ and hence, their direct involvement and frequent interventions in Pakistani politics will become unjustifiable.
While the Pakistan military certainly has the motive to take advantage of the current political crisis, but its preoccupation in counterinsurgency operations in North Waziristan will limit its ambitions.
Pakistan military establishment during the course of this complete crisis appears to be promoting Imran Khan, but, even if he comes to power he will have to tow their line for his political survival.
Above all, the current political crisis will be a litmus test for the progress of civilian-led democracy in Pakistan.

Impact on India

The recent escalation at the LOC and even the IB, in the Jammu region is a direct fallout of the military falling out of line with the government. It is a clear signal to the ruling government that the military establishment is supreme and does not need the political nod to go about its business.
Considering that the survival of the Military supremacy is directly related to the perceived threat from India, the situation in the Kashmir region will continue to remain tense.
The cross border terrorism and ceasefire violations will continue. India will have to decide the level of retaliatory action against such brazen infringements’. 
Lastly, the radicalization of Pakistan by the increasing influence of jihadi operatives, especially, after the exit of NATO forces from Afghanistan by the year end, and with the backup provided by their ISI and military, India must prepare itself to be suitably poised to take on any kind of eventualities. (You may read a connected topic on “Implications of Withdrawal of US & NATO Forces from Afghanistan” 

Article written by Col DJS Chahal 

 Also Read: